Dear Investor,

From an annual investment scope, 2026 has already felt like three full years. And it is only March. Venezuela, Greenland, the Japan Bond Market, AI disruption of software, the Chinese Mutiny, the eruption of the private debt market, and of course Iran.

Up to this point, our work around the Iranian conflict has centered on near-term price action, early dollar firming, oil refusing to be sold before missiles flew, and gold spiking then pulling back in a pattern consistent with prior cycles. Our positioning, accordingly, has been more tactical than portfolio-wide.

But as this conflict moves into its fourth week, it has become clear that a deeper framework is needed.

The attached March 2026 Global Macro Update breaks this down in full:

• Why this is still not a "market crash" setup, and what that actually means for your portfolio
• Our scenario framework for oil across three distinct resolution paths
• Why the volatility you are feeling is creating opportunity, not permanent damage

In an effort to provide clarity, we’ve developed this as a primary tool for understanding the market and navigating the current choppy waters with confidence.

The attached report outlines our current perspective on the market. Enjoy the read!

For more information about investing in the Arvocap Global Equity Special Fund and the Arvocap Multi-Asset Strategy Special Fund, contact our client specialists’ team through the email clients@arvocap.com.

VIEW PDF REPORT

Warm regards,

Arvocap Research